Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 13.214401 16.145706 19.405739 23.276532 27.722613 32.645153 38.481912
2025-11-30 9.255074 13.087782 17.820252 23.987491 31.699211 40.908560 52.613050
2025-12-07 6.660543 10.661924 16.046180 23.592559 33.647257 46.325345 63.233161
2025-12-14 5.160308 9.215212 15.089303 23.831139 36.081967 52.191202 74.467757
2025-12-21 3.756592 7.527448 13.419276 22.722667 36.406408 55.118568 81.865951
2025-12-28 3.090512 6.827330 13.042126 23.330632 39.042396 61.176748 93.607795
2026-01-04 2.514179 6.129704 12.524905 23.602677 41.124897 66.494046 104.506349
2026-01-11 2.086029 5.593753 12.169265 24.042206 43.423630 72.169633 116.089708
2026-01-18 1.772583 5.203868 11.992977 24.721564 46.090098 78.459874 128.758591
2026-01-25 1.393187 4.559940 11.234681 24.297484 46.925108 82.009619 137.539349
2026-02-01 1.154958 4.172389 10.898157 24.556286 48.849796 87.254996 148.969730
2026-02-08 0.917602 3.706469 10.317601 24.286182 49.835000 91.048064 158.318303
2026-02-15 0.680257 3.163242 9.508942 23.562613 50.114491 93.947447 166.773330
2026-02-22 0.572056 2.968613 9.450971 24.311800 53.052408 101.284919 182.426678
2026-03-01 0.429984 2.586866 8.868587 23.914623 53.873353 105.177943 192.812375
2026-03-08 0.343058 2.357263 8.611568 24.155847 55.862037 111.065208 206.530116
2026-03-15 0.233139 1.949190 7.782807 23.035595 55.173290 112.371294 212.906126
2026-03-22 0.192305 1.831068 7.731633 23.650041 57.856664 119.544037 229.021507
2026-03-29 0.151683 1.679606 7.546416 23.924973 59.875040 125.625102 243.514569
2026-04-05 0.121775 1.562643 7.439325 24.369152 62.249622 132.409998 259.361297
2026-04-12 0.100670 1.482530 7.432738 25.055660 65.151312 140.227884 277.144094
2026-04-19 0.070677 1.293349 7.005736 24.627122 65.701803 143.823903 287.897265
2026-04-26 0.054185 1.190225 6.854342 24.888647 67.712695 150.134361 303.424728